Scientists are predicting the deadly Ebola virus that has killed more than 3,400 people in West Africa this year could jump continents into Europe before the end of the year.
The epidemic has spread quickly across West Africa since March, affecting thousands and killing many of those infected.
World Health Organisation (WHO) scientists working to contain the disease of calculated how Ebola might spread over the coming months.
Fearing unwitting carriers will spread the disease by taking flights into Europe; the horrifying conclusion of the medical team is Ebola has a 75% chance of reaching France and a 50% chance of coming to Britain by 50%.
Other European countries with links to West Africa are also under threat – but to a lesser extent.
Contagion risk
Belgium has a 40% chance of being hit by the disease, while Spain faces a 14% chance of contagion.
Scientists produced the risk analysis on the basis that flights continue at the same rate in and out of the affected countries.
The European hubs for African flights are the major international airports in Paris and London, which makes them the main places infected individuals may travel to.
Even if flights were curtailed, the risk of the disease is still 25% for reaching France and 15% for Britain. Some airlines, such as British Airways and Emirates, have restricted flights in and out of West Africa, but the WHO has not grounded flights.
Ebola is spread by coming into contact with bodily fluids, such as a sneeze or sweat from shaking hands with an infected person.
Medical emergency
Britain and France have already successfully treated cases of the virus. Now, doctors in the USA have diagnosed their first confirmed victim.
Many countries in West Africa are battling the spread of the virus – including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Liberia.
“No one really knows how far this disease will spread,” said Derek Gatherer of Lancaster University, a tropical disease expert.
“But the chances are the longer Ebola continues to affect more and more people in West Africa, the more likely it is that one or more people carrying the disease will get on a flight and end up in a major European city.”
The WHO has declared the Ebola outbreak a major medical emergency as thousands of succumb to the disease.
Doctors say this is the worst Ebola outbreak in history and could have started by Bushmen eating the meat of infected animals, which led the virus to jump species.
