Financial News

What does inflation say about the economy?

Annual inflation across the European Union is averaging -0.2%, but what does this number tell us about spending power and how the economy is performing?

The Bank of England has announced the year on year inflation rate for April was 0.3%, down 0.2% from March.

In the two of the most popular expat destinations, the cost of living is negative.

France has seen inflation run at 0.1% for the past three quarters, while in Spain, the figure has fallen to -1.2% from -0.01% at the start of the year.

Altogether, 17 of the 29 EU states have negative inflation.

Inflation highs and lows

The lowest rates are in Romania (-2.6%), Bulgaria (-2.5%) and Cyrus (-2.1%), while the highest are in Belgium (1.5%) and Sweden (1%).

The cost of living data comes from the latest report from Eurostat, the EU’s official statistics body.

The question is what do these figures mean to someone on the street’s spending power?

Eurostat says price rises in cafes and restaurants, rents and tobacco are pulling the rate up, while lower energy costs are contributing to a cheaper cost of living.

Lower air fares are also affecting the cost of living, but these are related to the price of fuel, which is falling due to an oversupply of oil and a collapse in the price per barrel over the past year.

But oil seems to be bouncing back from a low of $28 a barrel earlier this year to close to $50 a barrel now.

Spending power

This rise is influenced by the Fort McMurray wildfire closing down a shale oil field in Canada, a terror attack on a key oil hub in Nigeria and political unrest in Venezuela.

The target or optimum inflation for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is 2%, so the current figure is well below what the money men would like to see.

This is keeping interest rates down in Britain and Europe. Lower interest rates feed through as less interest on savings and lower income guarantees from annuities.

The balance is cheaper prices balance out poor investment performance.

The economies in Britain and Europe are faltering and sliding perilously close to recession again.

Brexit is not helping. Economic uncertainty is discouraging bosses from signing contracts, taking on staff and investing in their businesses.

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