What’s going on with Brexit seems to change from minute to minute – so much so one European expert has tried to map out the options open for a deal or no deal.
But stand by to be flummoxed following the decision flow chart drafted by Jon Worth, of the College of Europe, Bruges, Belgium.
According to his workings, Britain has an 86% chance of going through another General Election before the end of 2019.
Other options have a much slimmer chance of passing.
Leaving with a no deal on October 31 is rated a 2% – the same probability of leaving with a deal.
Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the European Union is forecast with a 4% likelihood and a second referendum only gains 6% probability.
Johnson’s chance of remaining PM
“It’s unclear what happens next and this remains a fast moving situation. Those mapping out the options soon run out of paper and are forced to make constant updates and adjustments,” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi asset at Royal London Asset Management.
“The government could yet gain Parliamentary approval for a Withdrawal Agreement in time to leave with a deal on October 31 or they could try to leave without a deal on October 31.
“ They could ask for an extension to hold a general election or confirmatory referendum, or this could be done by a cross-party government of nation unity after a vote of no confidence. It would be very hard to predict the outcome of a referendum or general election fought as a proxy second referendum with No Deal and No Brexit options among the manifestos on offer.”
Meanwhile, worth gives Boris Johnson a 41% chance of remaining in 10 Downing Street by October 17 – the date of the next European Council meeting.
Brexit What Next?
Source: Jon Worth, College of Europe