Will Britain Leave The EU On October 31?

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Brexit is still dominating the headlines, but are the prospects of Britain crashing out of the European Union with a no deal on October 31?

The odds look quite slim that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will accomplish Brexit with or without a deal by then.

His hands are tied in the House of Commons as a cross-party gang of MPs has wrested away his initiative to pass legislation in the House.

Johnson lost his majority when MP Tim Lees cross the floor and joined the Lib Dems – and then made things even worse by sacking 21 rogue Tories who voted against the whip in a vote to allow MPs to introduce a bill stopping the UK leaving the EU without a negotiated deal.

The question is does Johnson have any more surprises up his sleeve?

Minority rapport

He obviously welcomed a chance to clear the decks of meddlesome Remainer MPs, despite the political cost. Perhaps he has eyed an election all along and wants to stack the Tory party with supporters who will back his policies after the vote.

Labour are playing a key role stopping his plans. The party is demanding the bill to stop a no deal Brexit is passed before they will back any call for an election.

Johnson needs a two-thirds majority of MPs to win his vote – around 434 votes. And that is a figure that seems a long way off as he commands a party that is in the minority by 43 votes.

Snap election coming?

However, that does not mean the House has lost confidence in Johnson or that he will lose every vote because many of the now independent former Tories could still vote with him.

Effectively, Johnson is a prisoner in Downing Street with little control over the House and the way MPs will vote.

He needs an election to give him the mandate he thinks the voters want to leave the EU on October 31, with or without a deal.

If he can go to the country, we are likely to see some alliance with the Brexit Party to dilute the vote for Labour and any Remainer candidates, just to add another twist to the riddle of how a new Parliament might look.

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