US house prices have risen every month for almost five years after the dark days of the downturn when millions of homes faced foreclosure.
In November, values nudged up another 1.1%, making the total increase for the year 7.1%.
Despite the prolonged bounce back, house prices in America are still an average 4,1% below their peak reached in April 2006 and are not expected to tip over the last high point until October 2017.
The forecast for December, from homes market analysts CoreLogic was a miserly 0.1% increase for the month and a drop back to 4.7% year-on-year.
“Last summer’s very low mortgage rates sparked demand,” said CoreLogic chief economist Dr Frank Northaft.
“With low for sale inventories, the result has been a pickup in prices.
“Now mortgage rates are higher and expected to rise again throughout the year, we expect a slowdown in demand and for prices to hug around the 4.7% annual increase marker by November.”
Only one state in the red
Although average prices have yet to beat the 2006 high, 14 states have surpassed their previous records.
Connecticut is still the only state in the red, posting a price decrease of -0.5%.
The five states with the largest year-on-year increase in November were:
- Oregon (10.3%)
- Washington (10%)
- Colorado (8.8%)
- Idaho (8.2%)
- Florida (7.8%)
For investors looking for a bargain, the five states with prices farthest from the 2006 peak are:
- Maryland (-18.7%)
- Connecticut (-20.1%)
- Arizona (-21.4%)
- Florida (-21.6%)
- Nevada (-31.7%)
Although prices in Florida were among the fastest growing year-on-year, homes in the state are worth about 80% of the 2006 peak.
Overvalued cities
The analysts also judge some metropolitan areas as overvalued because their year-on-year price growth has outperformed the predicted amount.
These include Denver, Colorado; Houston, Texas; Los Angeles; Miami and Washington.
However, web site Zillow claims the US housing market has regained the value lost in the downturn.
The site values the national housing stock at $29.6 trillion at the end of 2016 – 6% or 41.6 trillion more than a year earlier.
“The cumulative value of all homes in the U. dropped by $6.4 trillion between 2006 and 2012,” says the web site.
